Denise, John and Jed York have decided to force change upon a stuck in his ways Kyle Shanahan, in essence imposing a cash cap for the 49ers. After spending over $334 million cash on the team’s roster last year, the Yorks have demanded that the team budget be cut significantly.
The austerity move led to the exit of Deebo Samuel, now Brandon Aiyuk may follow him out the door along with several other vets. Aiyuk is due an option bonus of $22.85 million on April 1st, he may be dealt prior to that with Pittsburgh and New England rumored to be interested.
1. What’s going on with the Yorks?
Failure carries a price. Last year, Shanahan chose to run it back yet again to keep a Super Bowl roster intact, but the cash outlays from extensions were astronomical. After going 6-11, the Yorks have blocked Shanahan from running it back once more.
NFL owners voted last year to allow themselves to sell up to a 10% stake of their teams to private equity firms. The Yorks are exploring that option now. Selling a stake in the 49ers in my view would be more about the Yorks reimbursing themselves after spending over budget for several years, and $200 million in upgrades at Levi’s in preparation for the Super Bowl and World Cup next year.
The Yorks have just agreed in principle to acquire 51% ownership in Scottish soccer team Rangers FC of Glasgow. Talks have been ongoing since October. 51% ownership is estimated at just over $50 million, so it doesn’t have an impact on available money for the 49ers. Austerity is a reaction to 6-11, not a financial need.
2. What will this mean for the Purdy negotiations?
Not long ago, Jed York spoke of how the team valued Purdy and expected to pay him market rate. Now the Yorks are driving a hard line, opening at $45 million per year.
Whether they can compromise on a deal in the 50’s, to be determined. A deadline of sorts is OTAs, which begin in late May. The Niners will not want a repeat of last year when several players parachuted into the opener and the team didn’t build continuity in camp. A deal would also have internal conflict, the Yorks will want a lower signing bonus to reduce the cash outlay, while Shanahan will want that cash to be used to lighten the cap hit.
Without a deal in place, I’d expect Purdy to hold out. Will the Niners sign a solid backup in free agency or take a quarterback in the draft? That may determine how hard a line the Niners can take. Trading Purdy is unlikely as the OTA-driven deadline is late May and the draft is in late April.
One thing to watch if a deal is made, when is the out for re-negotiation with a minimal cap hit? To me, that is when the Niners are most likely to part with Shanahan and John Lynch, provided there are no rings. I expect that will be when their extensions expire after the 2027 season, creating an out with Purdy when a new head coach and GM may step in.
3. What will happen in free agency?
Given the austerity, anybody’s guess. Fans are begging for Atlanta center Drew Dalman, who the Falcons just allowed to go into free agency. NFL.com’s Gregg Rosenthal reports there will be a bidding war for Dalman. Some expect that to go over $15 million per year, which would likely price the Niners out. Chicago is targeting Dalman and has more cap space than the Niners.
The 49ers have $35 million in effective cap room after the Deebo Samuel trade. Parting with Aiyuk would cost another $7.5 million. Purdy is expected to count around $14 million against the 2025 cap. Add that up, the cap room is down to $13.5 million. They can cut Kyle Juszczyk, Leonard Floyd, Yetur Gross-Matos, and George Odom to free another $8.5 million. Extensions for George Kittle and Fred Warner can open up another $23.7. Timing will be key.
If Greenlaw walks, the Niners may shop for his replacement, possibly the Jets Jamien Sherwood, projected by PFF at $7.5 million per, or Nick Bolton of the Chiefs at $14 million. The Niners have been linked to Jets DB D.J. Reed in rumors, but that was prior to the Yorks putting their foot down on money.
4. What’s the latest with the draft?
Chicago has made two moves for veteran offensive linemen. When I suggested firing Shanahan and replacing him with Ben Johnson I got a ton of push back. One of my points was that Johnson would insist on upgrading the offensive line given its importance to his offense in Detroit. Now we’re seeing an instant OL upgrade in Chicago.
What does this mean for the Niners? That LSU guard/tackle Will Johnson is suddenly back in play at 11. He may still go in the top ten, but it’s now a solid possibility he’s on the board at 11.
Chicago is clearing positions for their first pick, just ahead of the Niners at 10. They could look to trade up to 5 for Ashton Jeanty. They can stay put and get a defensive lineman. They can still draft Johnson and put him at center if they don’t sign Dalman.
Free agency will give us important clues on how the draft will play out. Free agency “legal tampering”
negotiations begin Monday.
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